Why Kabila-Tshisekedi Alliance Collapsed

Under the scorching sun on January 24, 2019 in the Congolese capital Kinshasa, Félix Tshisekedi stammered his words of speech, after taking oath, making history as the very first president to come to power following a democratic and peaceful transfer of power.

The new President is said to be uneasy about the bulletproof vest, which he is not used to wearing. The thousands of Kinshasa who had invaded the Palais de la Nation to celebrate this historic day began to pray in unison. The president will recover, and will continue his speech. But the superstitious see it as a sign, that of fate, that of a difficult mandate that is beginning. Almost 20 months later, reality seems to be confirmed.

Litsani Choukran, the Founder of Politico observed through an editorial of his publication that Félix Tshisekedi was not prepared to become Head of State. At least he didn’t have the time. By the way, no one in the DRC is prepared.

Etienne Tshisekedi’s son has long been in the forefront of Cartesian management of his father’s party. Several witnesses also attest that during his lifetime, Etienne Tshisekedi did not want his own children to interfere in political action. “Etienne Tshisekedi was very skeptical of his son’s abilities. He was very demanding of his son “, explained Albert Moleka, former director of Etienne Tshisekedi’s cabinet. “He was someone who fought for the people and he was not going to give his son a pass.”

It was not until the 2015 that saw Felix Tshisekedi really begin his rise to the head of the party, largely helped by his mother, Marthe Tshisekedi, while his father is increasingly weakened by age and disease. At that time, the UDPS had already dragged its feet on the political scene for a long time, but Joseph Kabila would nonetheless extend a pole to his rival, whom he had faced since 2006.

Kabila and Katumbi, The UDPS Resisted

As the former president was nearing the end of his term, he noticed that Moïse Katumbi opposed him, and was winning a large part of his presidential majority. A political battle to the death begun. Etienne Tshisekedi becomes the wife everyone would like to have. Joseph Kabila passed in November 2015 before the two Chambers of Parliament, meeting in Congress, to call for dialogue, highlighting logistical difficulties which could, he said, delay the elections. Katumbi quickly understands the maneuver.

But he must wait. Because Kabila has sent to Europe his fine strategists, including Kalev Mutond and Néhémie Mwilanya, in discussions with Etienne Tshisekedi, to bring the UDPS back to dialogue. But Limete’s old wolf, who has seen it all with Mobutu, feels the confusion coming. The sphinx dragged out discussions and ended up saying no, sometimes posing incredible conditions. Moïse Katumbi jumps at the opportunity, goes to Brussels and signs an agreement, with other opponents, who line up behind Tshisekedi, in the large platform of the Rally.

Later in August 2016, the Sphinx floods the streets of Kinshasa with a human tide that accompanies him on his return to the country, after his long stay in Brussels. He’s pumped up. Kabila, however, clings to his plan. The elections are postponed.

The Constitutional Court, largely devoted to its cause, maintaining power. The army is deployed in the streets. Vital Kamerhe dreams of becoming Prime Minister, before being topped off by Samy Badibanga, barely debauched from the UDPS. But Etienne Tshisekedi is weakened by age. Moïse Katumbi has not only softened ideas vis-à-vis the UDPS.

Marthe Tshisekedi feels everything coming. In August of the same year, in order to consolidate the alliance with Katumbi, a young man, presented at the time as originating from the Katanga region, was parachuted as Secretary General. This is Jean-Marc Kabund. Bruno Mavungu is ousted. But in these appointments, another man slips in; Felix Tshisekedi is named among the three Deputy Secretaries General of the UDPS.

Difficult Succession of Felix Tshisekedi

Behind this movement, the royal road opens for Felix Tshisekedi at the head of the party. However, he must fight against Bruno Tshibala and Valentin Mubake, two “friends” of his father, who claim to be “founders” of the party. On the other hand, with pressure from the international community, the Rally, led by UDPS and Katumbi, agrees to dialogue directly with Kabila.

The talks of the interdiocesan center then began, which ended with the snatch, the night of December 31, 2016. Felix Tshisekedi has the advantage of being appointed Coordinator of the discussions, on the side of the Assembly. But the devastation is coming. On his way to Brussels for a simple “check-up”, Etienne Tshisekedi passes the weapon to the left, finished by a pulmonary embolism.

Joseph Kabila’s camp takes the opportunity to try a martingale. The special arrangement, which should give the Rassemblement the post of Prime Minister, and therefore Etienne Tshisekedi, is dragged on. His son, Félix Tshisekedi, hardly chosen by the platform to succeed his father, seems to meet opposition from Joseph Kabila.

“The two have met several times, but Felix Tshisekedi was uncompromising and that did not help matters,” said a FCC executive. This is mainly because in the meantime, from the central prison of Makala where he was imprisoned, Bruno Tshibala then offered himself to Joseph Kabila, with the idea of ​​detaching the UDPS from the cup of Moïse Katumbi and its ally with the majority of the former president. On the other hand, Valentin Mubake, who senses Felix Tshisekedi coming, also wants to distance his two competitors.

In April, when the Rally broke out, Joseph Kabila appointed Tshibala’s faction, much more “flexible” than that of Tshisekedi and Katumbi, to occupy the Prime Minister’s office. A choice that “veiled” the New Year’s Eve agreement, also plunging the country into a deep crisis. The Catholic Church being of the same opinion, it led these talks, supports the faction of Felix Tshisekedi, which is now joined by Vital Kamerhe, disappointed not to have been appointed Prime Minister.

Marches of Catholics, accompanied by opponents, are bloodily suppressed. But Joseph Kabila, suspected by opponents of always seeking either to run for a third term or to stay in power, takes everyone on the wrong foot and designates Emmanuel Ramazani as “Dauphin”.

Instead of the choice of Kabila only shaking his camp, he will rather make waves on the side of the opponents because in this month of July 2018, Félix Tshisekedi barely managed to be elected at the head of the UDPS, and must still find a way to break his agreement with Moïse Katumbi who, let us remember, was not allied with the UDPS for nothing.

In any case, the former governor wanted Etienne Tshisekedi’s party to side with his candidacy. But Joseph Kabila did not hear it that way. On the last day of the submission of candidatures, he cornered Katumbi at the gates of the DRC in Kasumbalesa. Here he is deprived of the Presidential election.

We are in Geneva now. November 2018. While part of the opposition still refuses to go to elections with the voting machine, the UDPS takes all its partners on the wrong foot by accepting elections “with or without machines”. The opposition is called upon to find a common candidate to beat featherweight Emmanuel Shadary. But in Switzerland, Felix Tshisekedi, who believes himself to be the favourite, is ambushed by Vital Kamerhe, who also dreams of being a candidate for everyone.

But neither Bemba, who is coming out of 10 years in prison, nor Katumbi, let alone Fayulu and the others will dare to trust him. However, instead of throwing themselves behind Tshisekedi’s son, here they are pulling out of their hats Martin Fayulu, an admittedly serious opponent who was not the most equipped to beat Kabila’s camp. The sacred union of the opposition breaks out. And in a turnaround that only Congolese politics have the secret, Félix Tshisekedi and Vital Kamerhe will sign a historic coalition agreement in Nairobi, sponsored by Uhuru Kenyatta, the Kenyan president.

Agreement may be at the root of the complications Felix Tshisekedi is going through at the moment. It is arguably the most unrealistic political deal in the world. Félix Tshisekedi obtains the agreement of unconditional support from Vital Kamerhe, as the latter is designated the future prime minister of the future president in the event of a presidential victory which is fast approaching.

In return, at the next presidential election, that is to say in 2023, it will be Félix Tshisekedi’s turn to support the candidacy of Vital Kamerhe, then becoming his Prime Minister. But the agreement is signed mostly in disbelief by its own signatories.

Because in this month of November 2018, nothing augurs well for the electoral results where the candidate of Joseph Kabila could lose. In any case, that is what people close to the former president themselves believe. And suddenly, neither Felix Tshisekedi, nor Vital Kamerhe, take the time to coldly analyze their mutual promises.

The electoral battle is on. Félix Tshisekedi and Vital Kamerhe create FatshiVit, which stops time in Kinshasa. Martin Fayulu becomes a phenomenon, Emmanuel Shadary counts his supporters, but prophesies his victory all the same. The rest being known. But the disillusion that will arise from it remains the heart of this analysis.

Let us remember that Felix Tshisekedi and Vital Kamerhe prevail and spectacularly ally themselves with Joseph Kabila, in terms that will remain unknown to this day, without being sincere. Because at the beginning of this mandate that the Congolese populations are waiting for, reminding Felix Tshisekedi “dad said, the people first”, both on the side of Kabila than that of Tshisekedi, the coalition is seen as “a lesser wrong “.

Including on the side of the international community. For the LAMUKA coalition, an alliance formed between Moïse Katumbi, Antipas Mbusa Nyamwisi, Freddy Matungulu, Adolphe Muzito, Jean-Pierre Bemba, who supported the candidacy of Martin Fayulu, this victory of Tshisekedi and his alliance with Kabila are experienced differently. Matungulu and Nyamwisi quickly dry up the group. Just like Gabriel Kyungu.

Félix Tshisekedi is, in fact, in the least envious position. He is elected, comes to power and sees the eyes of the people on him. He must relax the country, starting with a political lull: an end to arrests, the release of political prisoners, and the restoration of individual freedoms. Because the DRC comes from a period when the internet connection could be cut unilaterally. Initiatives that the new president will soon take. However, far from being special, such achievements cannot be part of the plate of the common people.

Félix Tshisekedi is also gripped by his own party, where the succession of Etienne Tshisekedi has never been settled. Jean-Marc Kabund sits there like a King, in a party which has never hidden its tribal preferences, and which is always learning democratic exercise. But perhaps the hardest part is that the UDPS is stripped of the frames of experience.

All those who once accompanied Félix Tshisekedi’s father are no longer there. While the people are hungry, with an already degrading economic situation, Félix Tshisekedi has spent his entire electoral campaign making promises, at the head of a party that has been dreaming for 30 years. He comes to power with an entourage that has never run a state! Who to lead with?

At the FCC, the coalition of Joseph Kabila, the presidential defeat leaves a bitter taste and resentment. Emmanuel Shadary will never get over it. Many, around the former president, are then created an illusion, the one that makes Felix Tshisekedi a “puppet”, that we could manipulate as we please, the time to regain power in 2023. In the understanding of Kabilist executives, especially since they strangely managed to win the legislative elections with an overwhelming majority, Felix Tshisekedi, who will not be able to govern without them, is like a lion in a cage.

If Felix Tshisekedi is not sufficiently uncomfortable by the Kabilist allusions and plans, he still has to answer for the reading of the LAMUKA coalition. Moïse Katumbi calmly sits down in Lubumbashi, after an eventful return to the country. Kabila is still mad at him. Armed with his Congolese passport, he only has to pray that 2023 arrives quickly and that the Kabila-Tshisekedi coalition fails in power. For his part, Jean-Pierre Bemba dreams of a constitutional revision to become a candidate again, when he is excluded for life, after being convicted of witness tampering by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Martin Fayulu, who has had a taste of popularity, still believes he is president, even though no one is listening. He is nevertheless supported by his “brother” Adolphe Muzito, who, like everyone else, has no interest in Tshisekedi and Kabila succeeding.

On the side of the international community, marriage at the top of the country is tolerated, but only as a springboard to further weaken Joseph Kabila. Washington and his special envoys in Kinshasa therefore do not see Felix Tshisekedi as a President who could work for the real development of the country, to whom the United States would give the means, but rather as a president of a transition during which they could take advantage to finish with Kabila. The latter knows it.

Also, his fight against the United States continues around Felix Tshisekedi. In the street, on the side of specialists, the new president is also pushed to the limit. “Joseph Kabila has not left the political field at all.

He also has the levers within the economy and the influence in the field of the army “, explains Jean-Claude Félix Tchicaya, researcher for the Institute of Prospective and Security in Europe (IPSE),” Tshisekedi has tied his feet. and fists when he accepted the coalition agreement, which puts part of the government in difficulty. He is a fragile and weakened president, ”adds the academic.

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